Senin, 30 Januari 2023

Israel was behind drone attacks at military plant in Iran, US media report




US officials believe drone attacks at a military plant in Iran’s central city of Isfahan were carried out by Israel, according to US media reports.

Tehran said on Sunday that drones had attacked the plant in Isfahan late the previous evening, calling the operation “unsuccessful.”

The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that Israel was behind the attacks, citing US officials and people familiar with the operation. The New York Times cited senior intelligence officials who were familiar with the dialogue between Israel and the United States about the incident. None of the officials were named.

CNN has not independently confirmed that information. A US Department of Defense spokesperson told CNN that the US has not conducted strikes or operations inside Iran.

“We’ve seen the press reports, but can confirm that no US military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation, but have nothing further to provide,” the spokesperson said.

Iran’s Defense Ministry has not publicly offered any information about who carried out the attack. The Israel Defense Forces declined comment.

“An explosion has occurred in one of the military centers affiliated to the Ministry of Defense,” the deputy head of security for Isfahan governorate Mohammad Reza Jan-Nesari earlier told the semi-official Fars News Agency.

Jan-Nesari said the explosion had left some damage, “but fortunately there were no casualties.”

The state news agency IRNA later said the explosion had been caused by “small drones.”

“There was an unsuccessful attack by small drones against a defense ministry industrial complex and fortunately with predictions and air defense arrangements already in place, one of them (struck),” IRNA said in a post on Twitter, citing the country’s defense ministry.

“The air defense system of the complex was able to destroy two other drones. Fortunately, this unsuccessful attack killed no one and minor damage was sustained to the roof of the complex.”

The ministry said the attack took place at 10:30 p.m. local time Saturday. The plant is about 440 kilometers (270 miles) south of Tehran.

In the past few years, several explosions and suspicious fires have occurred around Iranian military and nuclear facilities.

In July 2020, a fire tore through the Iranian Natanz nuclear complex, a site that has been key to the country’s uranium enrichment program, in Isfahan Province, south of the capital Tehran. Iranian authorities decided not to publicly announce the findings on what caused the fire due to security concerns, according to Iran’s Supreme Nation Security Council.

The following year, a blackout occured in Natanz on the anniversary of National Nuclear Day, with Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI) calling it a “terrorist action.” Israel’s army chief appeared to hint at possible Israeli involvement in the incident.

In October 2019, an oil tanker belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) was hit and damaged by two missiles. A spokesperson for the National Iranian Tanker Company initially suggested it could have been fired from Saudi soil, but that was later dismissed and the Iran government did not provide an alternative conclusion.

Earlier that year, a truck loaded with explosives detonated and struck a bus carrying members of the Iranian military’s elite Revolutionary Guard in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, killing at least 23 and wounding 17. A separatist group called Jaish al-Adl, or Army of Justice, claimed responsibility for the suicide attack.


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Minggu, 29 Januari 2023

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fires Nadhim Zahawi as Conservative Party chairman




The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak bowed to pressure on Sunday by firing the Conservative Party chairman Nadhim Zahawi, who has faced criticism over his personal tax arrangements.

Sunak last week ordered his ethics adviser to investigate Zahawi following claims he had paid a penalty as part of a reported £4.8 million ($5.96 million) settlement with tax officials. It was alleged that Zahawi did not declare the dispute with tax authorities.

Zahawi was appointed chancellor of the exchequer – finance minister - by former prime minister Boris Johnson in July last year. He remained in the Cabinet under Johnson’s successor Liz Truss and her successor, Sunak, who made him party chairman.

In a letter to Zahawi, Sunak said that, after the investigation completed its work, “it is clear that there has been a serious breach of the Ministerial Code.”

“As a result, I have informed you of my decision to remove you from your position in His Majesty’s Government.”


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Sabtu, 28 Januari 2023

West to deliver 321 tanks to Ukraine, says diplomat, as North Korea accuses US of ‘crossing the red line’

 


Western countries will deliver more than 300 tanks to Ukraine, Kyiv’s ambassador to France said Friday.

“As of today, numerous countries have officially confirmed their agreement to deliver 321 heavy tanks to Ukraine,” Vadym Omelchenko told French TV station and CNN affiliate BFM television.

He did not specify which countries would provide the tanks or provide a breakdown of which models.

The figure from Omelchenko comes after the US this week pledged to provide 31 M1 Abrams tanks and Germany agreed to send 14 Leopard 2 A6s. Previously the United Kingdom has pledged 14 Challenger 2 tanks, while Poland has asked for approval from Germany to transfer some of its own German-made Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

Omelchenko’s interview came as North Korea accused the United States and its allies of “further crossing the red line” by sending tanks to Ukraine.

The US has a “sinister intention to realize its hegemonic aim by further expanding the proxy war for destroying Russia,” said Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a statement run by North Korean media on Friday.

She accused the US and other Western countries of “wrecking the global peace and the regional security while handing military hardware running into astronomical sums of money over to Ukraine in total disregard of Russia’s concern about security” – and vowed North Koreans would “always stand in the same trench” as the people of Russia.

When the tanks will arrive in Ukraine remains unclear. Omelchenko said delivery dates would vary depending on the type of tank and the country of origin, and the timing would be adjusted during the next round of consultations between Ukraine and Western countries.

However, echoing the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had previously urged the West to provide what some experts see as game-changing military hardware, Omelchenko said Ukraine needed the assistance “as fast as possible”.

“If it had to wait until the month of August or September, it would be too late,” he said.

M1A2 Abrams tanks stand on the grounds of the 1st Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division during a visit by the German president to U.S. forces on July 13, 2022, Bavaria, Grafenwoehr. Photo: Daniel Karmann/dpa (Photo by Daniel Karmann/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Ukraine's new tanks won't be the instant game-changer some expect
Ukrainian forces have warned they are in a race against time. The country fears that a second Russian offensive may begin within two months and is bracing for the coming weeks.

Previous military aid, like the American HIMARS rocket system, has been vital in helping Ukraine disrupt Russian advances and make a series of successful counter-offensives in recent months.

But tanks represent the most powerful direct offensive weapon provided to Ukraine so far, military experts said.

This week, several Western nations led by Germany and the United States said they would send contingents of tanks to Ukraine.

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Kamis, 26 Januari 2023

Ukraine’s new tanks won’t be the instant game-changer some expect




Those hoping that main battle tanks donated by NATO allies to Ukraine will have an immediate impact in its war with Russia may have to adjust their expectations.

After confirming it will receive deliveries of the American M-1 Abrams, German Leopards and British Challengers, Kyiv is now confronted with the logistical and operational realities of incorporating an assortment of vastly different and complex heavy armor into effective fighting units.

But first, the Ukrainians must factor in the time line for delivery.

Even the most optimistic estimates say it will take months for the tanks to enter the battlefield in numbers to make a big difference, while in the case of Abrams tanks it could be more than a year before Ukraine is able to deploy them.

Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said Thursday that the United States would provide Ukraine with an advanced version of the Abrams, the M1A2.

The US does not “have these tanks available in excess in our US stocks,” she said, adding it will take “months to transfer” them to Ukraine.

Many analysts say it would make things easier for Ukraine to stick with one kind of tank, and that’s what makes Germany’s decision to allow Leopards into the fight so important.

Modern main battle tanks are complicated pieces of weaponry. Looking formidable and rugged on the outside, much of their effectiveness on the battlefield comes down to sophisticated electronic and computer systems at their core. Those systems find targets and train the tank’s main gun on them.

Maintaining the tanks, repairing them, and supplying the parts necessary requires detailed training all the way from the crews in the vehicles to the logistics trail supporting them, hundreds or maybe thousands of miles from the front lines in eastern Ukraine.

27 January 2022, Bavaria, Hohenfels: A Polish Leopard 2 stands in a wooded area during the international military exercise "Allied Spirit 2022" at the Hohenfels military training area. With helicopters, tanks and infantry, military forces from more than ten countries are training for emergencies at a training area. Photo by: Armin Weigel/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
Why sending Ukraine tanks represents a fierce new step by the West
“The tank that they can operate and maintain most effectively will be the right option, which probably means one available in large numbers with less complex systems, which runs on the most accessible fuels and uses readily available ammunition – and that likely means the Leopard 2,” said Blake Herzinger, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Nicholas Drummond, a defense industry analyst specializing in land warfare and a former British Army officer, concurs.

“I would say the ability to train Ukrainian soldiers to support any tanks they are given is almost more important than the type of tank they use,” he said.

Drummond said the German tanks were designed to be maintained by conscript armies, like Ukraine’s, giving the Leopards an advantage over the Abrams and Challengers, which are fielded by volunteer professional forces in the US and British militaries. Because conscripts have less time to learn during their period in uniform, a simpler design like the Leopard helps reduce the chances of maintenance mistakes, he said.

‘Long logistics tail’
Not getting every little bit of that maintenance right could lead to a battlefield disaster.

Mark Hertling, a CNN military analyst who once commanded the US Army’s 1st Armored Division, knows the Abrams and its capabilities and vulnerabilities well.

Keeping the tanks battle-ready means not only training their crews, but also every person in the supply chain that supports them, he said on Twitter.

“Those saying ‘just give them the damned tanks!’ have likely never seen the choreography to making this work on the battlefield,” Hertling said. “In combat get just a few things wrong and it causes disaster and failure. Lethal tanks turn into pillboxes that don’t move or shoot,” he said.

A Leopard 2 A7 main battle tank of the German armed forces Bundeswehr drives through the mud in the context of an informative educational practice "Land Operation Exercise 2017" at the military training area in Munster, northern Germany, on October 13, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ        (Photo credit should read PATRIK STOLLARZ/AFP via Getty Images)
VIDEO
Hear what Kremlin threatens after Germans announce tanks
Because the Abrams is American-made, it has “a very long logistics tail stretching back to the US,” said Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. Key components that wear out or are damaged in battle would need to be replaced with US parts, which would have to be sent to a repair depot in Ukraine or possibly Poland, which is in the process of acquiring its own fleet of Abrams.

Thompson said the Pentagon is good at solving difficult logistical issues, “but the risk is high to both the US and Ukraine.”

Think of the propaganda victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin if pictures emerge of disabled American tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield.

“Being able to support Leopards from a European logistics base is definitely preferable,” Thompson said.

And that speaks to the number of Leopards available. According to Drummond, who is an adviser to the manufacturer of the German tanks, more than 4,000 are in service. “Spare parts are readily available from multiple sources,” he said.

‘Supportability trumps sheer firepower’
The diversity of sources for Leopards was highlighted Thursday when Canada said it would send four of the German-made tanks to Ukraine, but perhaps just importantly, also provide training and technical support.

Other NATO countries with Leopards in their arsenals include Poland, Greece, Spain, Turkey, Hungary, Denmark, Portgual, Norway, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. NATO applicants Sweden and Finland also have substantial numbers of Leopards.

Drummond also gives historical perspective on why numbers are so important from World War II, when US-made Sherman tanks faced off with German Tiger tanks.

“The Tiger was quantifiably better than Sherman in many areas. But Sherman was good enough,” he said.

“What really gave Sherman an edge was that it was designed to be easy to produce. With 49,234 Shermans made versus 1,347 Tigers, quantity outranked quality. Today supportability trumps sheer firepower, protection and mobility,” Drummond said.

Operating new, often mismatched types of equipment is something the Ukrainians have proven themselves adept at in the war, putting together old Soviet-era tank stocks and those captured from Russia into what so far has been an effective force.

“As far as 12 of one model, 30 of another and 100 of a third … that’s another Wednesday morning in the Ukrainian Army,” said Trent Telenko, a former quality control auditor for the US’ Defense Contract Management Agency.

“Ukraine is throwing smart people at their maintenance issues along with both true mechanized logistics and modern warehousing information technology to help keep track of parts with modern 2D and 3D bar coding on their spares packaging,” he said.

But Germany’s pledge of 14 Leopard tanks is just a fraction of the 300 Ukraine says it needs. Germany’s main governing party said in a tweet Wednesday that more would come from Kyiv’s other partners to put two battalions of Leopards – around 80 tanks in total – in Ukrainian hands.

NATO ally Poland, which spearheaded the push to get Germany to allow the German-made equipment to be provided to Ukraine, is a likely donor of Leopards.

Officials say Ukrainian crews could begin training on the tanks they will eventually receive in short order. But seeing them in combat is likely months off.

“Ukrainian military personnel need to be trained – the Leopard are a very advanced equipment, technologically, and so that will take a few weeks, just the training process,” Portuguese Foreign Minister João Gomes Cravinho told broadcaster SIC on Wednesday.

“After that there are logistical hurdles that need to be addressed with the allies, so it’ll take two or three months.”



‘Fighting an existential war’

While Ukraine waits for the modern tanks, Russia is unlikely to stand still.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Thursday reported that Moscow may be gearing up for an offensive in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine, which will see an emphasis on conventional Russian forces rather than the contracted Wagner Group troops that have been operating there.

Russia warship drills
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See Russia's show of force after US pledges tanks
But knowing that new tanks are coming will give Ukrainian commanders more freedom in deploying their current stocks to counter any Russian offensive, ISW said.

Hertling, the CNN military analyst, also said the Leopard tanks might be on the battlefield in about three months. The Abrams could take eight or more, he wrote on Twitter.

“But that’s lightning speed to deliver (and) prepare a force not trained on these vehicles,” Hertling said.

And even though the Leopards and Abrams may take some time to get to the battlefield, experts say Ukraine’s military will need them for years.

“We are watching the Ukrainian military modernize and westernize at the same time while fighting an existential war,” said Herzinger, of the American Enterprise Institute.

“So decisions are being made as to what kind of tanks they’ll want in the future too, which comes with a lot of long-term choices regarding security partners,” he said.

Ukraine may not be joining NATO anytime soon, but it will be armed like a NATO country.

Analysts note the impressive arsenal of NATO-compatiable equipment already on the battlefield or in the pipeline for Ukraine – infantry fighting vehicles from the US, the United Kingdom and Germany, HIMARS rocket systems and other artillery, and Patriot air defense batteries among those systems.

“This will assure not only the quantity but also the quality of the equipment available to them and allow Ukraine to be incorporated more efficiently into NATO and other western logistics and maintenance systems,” Frank Ledwidge, a military expert at the University of Portsmouth, wrote on The Conversation this month.

“Ukraine will not only have the capability to defeat the increasingly outfought Russian army this year and next – but its armed forces will be a deterrent to any further attack by a rearmed, revanchist Russia in the future.

“It will ensure Ukraine’s – and therefore Europe’s – security well into the next decade.”


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Rabu, 25 Januari 2023

As Israel bans Palestinian flags, one artist protests with his brush




Just over a decade ago, the Palestinian flag hung alongside Israeli and American flags at the Israeli prime minister’s residence, when Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas shared a historic handshake.

Today, Netanyahu is back in power and Abbas never left, but many other things have changed, including Israel’s attitude toward the Palestinian flag.

This month, new Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir ordered police to take down Palestinian flags in any public place in Israel, claiming they are a rallying symbol for terrorists.

At least one artist felt forced to respond to Ben Gvir’s decree.

As soon as he heard about the minister’s order, Tel Aviv-based visual artist Michael Rozanov drew himself in the colors of the Palestinian flag and made the artwork his Facebook profile picture.

“It’s ridiculous, you want to take down flags? What if I am a flag, what would you do? Would you put me down because I’m wearing certain colors?” said Rozanov, known as Mysh. “So I drew this illustration that took me 10 minutes.”

He didn’t expect it to attract much attention, but dozens of Israelis joined Mysh, asking him to draw their profile pictures with the Palestinian flag in the hope of making some impact.

“And then I thought, yeah, it would be nice to offer other people to join in. Because I like drawing and I like starting something online,” Mysh told CNN .

Naturally, he also drew Ben Gvir clothed in the colors of the Palestinian flag, right up to his kippa, the skullcap worn by religious Jews.

Mysh is far from the only Israeli unhappy with Netanyahu’s new government. The prime minister’s right-wing coalition won a slim majority of the popular vote in November’s elections, but critics and opponents object to a wide range of its moves, including the Palestinian flag public ban, increased deference to the ultra-Orthodox and plans to change the judicial system.

More than 100,000 people turned out in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, the latest – and largest – in a series of weekly protests against legal reforms Netanyahu’s allies are planning.

But not all Israelis welcomed Mysh’s drawings.

One commenter on Facebook accused Mysh of “spreading a flag of hate,” adding: “What a bummer.”

Another said: “What does this want to say? That it is now cool to belong to a nation that has surrendered to its terrorist leaders? Hamas doesn’t want peace with us, what’s not clear?”

Mysh made a point of replying to each comment to explain and even try to convince his critics.

But he believes that Ben Gvir’s attempt to publicly ban the Palestinian flag – which is technically legal to fly in Israel – is a continuation of the direction Israel has been moving toward since its founding in 1948.

“It’s definitely a step forward for the craziness, but nothing surprising,” Mysh said. “I think what we see now is the shattering of this illusion that most Israelis try to maintain, that they can live in a liberal democracy that respects all human rights, while simultaneously robbing five million people more of the same basic rights,” he said, referring to the Palestinian population.

An artist who uses different media – film and animation, illustration and comics – to address social and political issues, as well as sexuality and gender, Mysh came to Israel as a teenager from Latvia in 1993 and served in its army for three years.

But one day doing his reserve service at an Israeli checkpoint in the Jordan Valley, he says he had a powerful insight into the Palestinian experience.

“The only reason that checkpoint existed was to make the life of the people in the village more difficult,” Mysh said. “We were checking the same people twice every day. They were mostly mothers who take their children to kindergarten on the other side of the village.”

“There was a day when I was standing there with my gun and another soldier was checking ID cards, and suddenly I realized that I am a grown-up man who points a gun at a 3-year-old child. And I say to myself: ‘I’m not really pointing at him. I’m just standing like this.’ Yeah, but he doesn’t know that. What he sees is this scary creature pointing a f**king gun.”

“It suddenly hit me, the perspective of the other side, which is this child that twice a day sees this monster pointing a gun at him. What are the chances that this child grows up being ready to see me as a human being as I am? How can I expect him to perceive me as a human being? Then I decided I’m out of this. I’m not doing this anymore,” Mysh said.

Mysh sees a direct connection between Israel’s military checkpoints and Ben Gvir’s attempt to essentially ban the Palestinian flag, which is likely to be tested in court.

“Every oppressive system is a weak system because it can’t withstand any friction,” Mysh argued. “It needs to enforce a huge amount of violence to avoid friction.”

That is what Ben Gvir is trying to achieve, Mysh said: “It is an idea that in order to achieve our national identity, we need to take it away from other people.”

The digest
NATO negotiations between Sweden, Finland and Turkey delayed – Finnish FM

Finland’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told CNN on Tuesday the country’s joint NATO membership bid with Sweden is delayed amid reignited tensions with Turkey. “Of course, this is not good news,” he said. The delay follows protests in Stockholm over the weekend that included the burning of a copy of the Quran.

Background: Turkish state broadcaster TRT Haber reported Tuesday that scheduled negotiations between the three nations in February have been postponed upon Ankara’s request. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sweden on Monday that it should not expect to receive any support from Turkey for backing the country to join NATO in light of the protests. Haavisto indicated in the CNN interview there are no plans for Finland to proceed with its NATO membership bid without its Nordic neighbor: “We are not in a hurry, we have time to go together with Sweden,” he told CNN.
Why it matters: Turkey’s Erdogan has been caught in a spat with his NATO allies over his obstruction of Sweden and Finland’s accession to the Western alliance. Turkey has cited the Nordic countries’ “support for terrorist groups,” mainly Kurdish militant groups, as a key reason for its objection. The recent burning of a Quran in Stockholm, which ignited outrage across the Muslim world, has further strained negotiations, all of which come months ahead of a presidential election in Turkey that Erdogan hopes will allow him to rule into a third decade. Haavisto added he hopes negotiations can resume after the Turkish election in May.
Battle continues over Beirut port explosion probe

Lebanese judiciary officials clashed on Tuesday over the reopening of an investigation into the 2020 Beirut port explosion. The inquiry was reopened by judge Tarik Bitar on Monday, but was rejected by Attorney General Ghassan Oweidat, who insisted that the investigation remains suspended and that no decision had been taken on whether Bitar could continue investigating.

Background: The inquiry into the blast had been paralyzed for more than a year by political confrontation and complaints filed by top officials who were sought for questioning. The massive explosion that took place in Beirut’s port on August 4, 2020 left more than 200 people dead and thousands injured. The damage was estimated at between $3.8 and $4.6 billion.
Why it matters: Reopening the investigation may bring hope to countless victims whose lives were uprooted by the deadly blast. Many are still eager to see accountability for the incident.
Israeli PM meets Jordan’s king in Amman in first trip abroad since returning to office

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday held talks with King Abdullah in Jordan. The visit comes amid heightened tensions between the two countries over a Jerusalem site holy to both Muslims and Jews over which Jordan has custodianship in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem.

Background: Tensions have been high over the flashpoint complex known as Haram al-Sharif to Muslims and Temple Mount to Jews. It contains the al-Aqsa mosque, the third holiest site in Islam, and the site of the destroyed first and second Jewish Temples, the holiest site to Jews. Only Muslims are allowed to pray at the complex under a decades-old agreement. However, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir, who in a controversial move visited the site two weeks ago, believes that Jews should have the right to pray there too. King Abdullah told CNN in December that Jordan is willing to work with “anybody and everybody” in Israel to bring peace, but won’t allow “red lines” over Jerusalem to be crossed, referring to al-Aqsa mosque.
Why it matters: This is Netanyahu’s first trip abroad since reassuming Israel’s premiership last month, and his first visit to Amman and meeting with Abdullah since June 2018. It comes just two weeks after Ben Gvir’s visit to the site, which drew widespread international condemnation, including from Jordan’s Royal Court. After the visit, Abdullah stressed the need for Israel to respect “the historical and legal status quo” of the al-Aqsa mosque compound. Palestinians immediately objected to the visit.

American social media star Kylie Jenner’s baby son was trending on Twitter in several Arab countries – for all the wrong reasons.

Jenner revealed her 11-month-old son’s name to the public on Sunday. Arabs swiftly took to social media to poke fun at it. The name, Aire, means penis or ‘my penis’ in Levantine Arabic, and is often used as profanity.

“Umm should someone tell Kylie Jenner she renamed her son Aire which is a common Arabic expression for ‘my penis’ or nah?” tweeted journalist Antoinette Lattouf to her 13,000 followers.

Even the head of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) weighed in.

“Arabic speakers are having a field day with this. The Arabic language is full of beautiful words, many of them are used for names,” Abed A. Ayoub, national executive director of the ADC, tweeted in jest to his 15,000 followers. “I hope he doesn’t have any Arab friends when he’s older.”

Jenner, 25, is mother to Aire Webster and 4-year-old Stormie Webster.

This is not the first time such a name made news in Levantine countries, which include Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian territories.

In 2012, Arabic news outlets found themselves in a tough spot when Jean-Marc Ayrault became the prime minister of France. The French pronunciation of his name also means “his penis” in Levantine Arabic. Many Arabic outlets chose to pronounce his name with the L, which is meant to be silent.

CNN Arabic similarly decided to transliterate Ayrault’s name as it is written, with last two letters, rather than how it’s spoken.

The French foreign ministry at the time said it was aware of the issue but had no comment.



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Selasa, 24 Januari 2023

Poland requests German approval to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine

 


Poland has formally asked for approval from Germany to transfer some of its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, its defense minister said Tuesday, raising the pressure on Berlin to respond to Kyiv’s pleas and send its own shipment of vehicles into the battlefield.

“The Germans have already received our request for consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine,” Mariusz Blaszczak said on Twitter. “I also appeal to the German side to join the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. This is our common cause, because it is about the security of the whole of Europe!”

The German government confirmed receipt of the request; it would not say how quickly it would come to a decision, but emphasized that the process would take place with “necessary urgency.”

Germany has so far resisted calls from Poland, the US and a handful of other NATO countries to transfer the tanks into Ukraine, or authorize other countries to send some of their Leopards to Kyiv.

That position has led to a weekslong spat between German and Polish leaders, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accusing Germany of “wasting time” by failing to come to a decision.

“We are preparing our decision and it will come very soon,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday, adding that if the decision is to send the tanks, Germany would be able to “act very soon.”


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BAD FRANKENHAUSEN, GERMANY - SEPTEMBER 15: Two Leopard 2 A7V battle tanks prior an event to mark the reception of the first units of the new tank on September 15, 2021 in Bad Frankenhausen, Germany. Panzerbataillon 393 is part of NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). (Photo by Jens Schlueter/Getty Images)
Germany is 'wasting time' on sending tanks to Ukraine, its allies say. Here's why the Leopard 2 is so important
Poland, along with a number of European countries, has its own batch of Leopards which it is seeking to re-export. By rule Berlin must approve such a move, but the German government has indicated it will not stand in the way of Poland sending Leopards across its eastern border into Ukraine.

Morawiecki said Monday that a “condition” for Poland was the assembly of a “small coalition” of states willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine. But foreign minister Zbigniew Rau later told journalists that Warsaw was “determined” to send tanks regardless of the decisions of other countries.

The Leopard 2 is seen as a vital, modern military vehicle that would bolster Kyiv’s forces as the war with Russia approaches the one-year mark.

In total, there are around 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks spread across Europe, at different levels of readiness.

Each tank contains a 120mm Smoothbore gun, and a 7.62mm machine gun; it can reach speeds of 70 km per hour, or 50 kmp/h when off-road, making maneuverability one of its key features. And there is all-around protection from threats, including improvised explosive devices, mines or anti-tank fire, according to its German manufacturer, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded for countries to stop squabbling over whether to send the tanks.

“We have talked hundreds of times about the shortage of weapons. We cannot go only on motivation,” he said during a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos last week.

In an apparent swipe at Germany’s stalling, Zelensky added: “There are moments when there is no need to hesitate. When people say – I’ll give you tanks if someone else does.”

Russia has meanwhile sought to threaten Germany as it deliberates. Asked during a regular press briefing about Moscow’s reaction if Berlin approved sending tanks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the relations between the two countries “are already at a fairly low point,” adding there is currently “no substantive dialogue with Germany or with other EU and NATO countries.”

“Of course, such deliveries do not bode well for the future of relations. They will leave an imminent trace,” Peskov said.

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Senin, 23 Januari 2023

Iran’s regime is trying to execute its way out of trouble




The cries of the women outside a Tehran courthouse swell to a collective wail. The gathering is reminiscent of a vigil, but it is one of the vestiges of a nationwide uprising that has all but died down after the Iranian judiciary’s breathless handing down of death sentences in recent weeks.

Children stand at the front of the courthouse protest chanting “No to execution” in a January 14 video shared by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). Despite the blurring of faces in the video, one girl can be seen wiping her tears. She appears no older than 10 years.

The nationwide uprising that began in mid-September convulsed Iran, posing the biggest domestic threat to the ruling clerical class in more than a decade.

It penetrated the regime’s conservative support base and produced countless acts of defiance – and sometimes violence – against the formidable Basij, a voluntary paramilitary group that is the fulcrum of the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus. The protesters were young and angry, and a barrier of fear appeared to have broken.

Four months on, the protests have fizzled out amid a growing wave of repression against demonstrators. Four protesters have been executed by the regime; many others fear the same fate. The executions are the culmination of an increasingly violent crackdown including the gunning down of protesters, mass arrests, physical assault and sexual violence.

The regime has also doubled down on the repression of dissidents, ethnic minorities and women. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has chalked the protests up to a foreign conspiracy and has called them an “act of treason.”


Another factor working against the protesters: most people over the age of 25 have steered clear of the demonstrations, analysts and activists said. This deprived the protest movement of the momentum needed to topple a heavily sanctioned regime over which the international community has little to no remaining leverage.

Still, Iran analysts agree that the regime has kicked the can down the road, and that protests are likely to resurface. Iran’s clerical leadership is either unwilling or unable to address its festering economic problems, exacerbated by a US sanctions regime and by widespread corruption.

“People’s anger has increased, not decreased,” said a 25-year-old activist from the southeast of the country who asked not to be named due to concern for his safety. “If there were no guns in the hands of security forces, large masses of people would stage an insurrection tomorrow.”

Almost 20,000 people have been arrested according to activists. More than 500, including dozens of children, have been killed, according to HRANA.

Iran Fire
VIDEO
Inside Iran's third month of protests as regime steps up deadly crackdowns
The repressive methods have left Iran’s protesters in a catch-22 situation. Disgruntlement against the regime appears to be spreading, but its use of brute force has deterred protesters from growing to the level needed to force the regime to stand down.

The absence of a critical mass created a “mathematical problem” for the protest movement, said Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group’s Director of the Iran Project.

“The majority will only join in when the regime has lost its will to suppress,” he told CNN. “And the regime’s will to suppress is unlikely to crack unless there is a critical mass on the streets.”

Vaez compares the state of affairs in Iran to the Soviet Union in the early 1980s, a period of public frustration and dire economic conditions that years later prompted the string of reforms, known as Perestroika, that preceded the USSR’s collapse.

“(The Islamic Republic) is where the Soviet Union was in early 1980s … It is ideologically bankrupt, is economically in deep trouble and is simply unable to reform itself,” said Vaez. “Unlike the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, (Iran) still has the will to fight.”

“One can conclude that the protests will re-emerge sooner rather than later in a more ferocious manner,” he added.

The chilling effect of executions

Echoes of the uprising continue to reverberate in the country. Every night in Tehran, , chants of “death to the dictator” ring out from rooftops and from behind drawn curtains, out of the sight of security forces. Anti-regime protests continue to crop up in some of the country’s minority-dominated border regions which bore the brunt of the regime’s crackdown.

On Friday, thousands of people poured into the streets of Baloch-majority Zahedan city after noon prayers, demanding the fall of the regime.

The Kurdish-majority west of the country continues to be peppered by gatherings marking the end of 40-day mourning periods for slain protesters.

“Kurdistan, Kurdistan, the graveyard of fascists,” mourners chanted in a video shared by Iranian-Kurdish human rights group Hengaw on January 16. The mourners raised roses in the air to commemorate Hooman Abdullahi, a protester who was shot and killed by security forces.

For activists, the endurance of the protests among ethnic minorities is a sign of what’s to come. The executions, they say, will eventually backfire.

At least 18 protesters have been sentenced to death as of now, with only five having won the right to appeal, according to HRNA. More than 100 protesters have been charged with crimes that carry the death penalty.

Four people have been executed already, including high-profile prisoners such as a karate champion and children’s coach.

Protesters with a noose around their necks during a demonstration in The Hague on December 21. The protest called on the Dutch House of Representatives to close the Iranian embassy and to expel its diplomats.  
Executions aren't new in Iran, but this time they're different
“People are more angry after we realized how fast and hastily they hanged those men,” said one activist in Iran who does not want to be identified for security reasons and calls himself Mr. Z. “I think they compressed the spring more. Next time, people won’t even be afraid of being hanged,” he told CNN.

The executions have drawn sharp condemnation from the international community. Reports, including CNN’s own reporting, suggest that most protesters are being denied due process, with speedy trials and access only to state-appointed lawyers.

But the death sentences have also had a chilling effect, mostly on the older generation of Iranians who largely stayed off the street and who are now trying to keep their children at home, activists say.

“Nobody wants to hold a picture of their kid,” said one activist outside Iran, referring to mothers carrying photos of their slain and arrested sons and daughters. The images have been ubiquitous since the start of the protests.

“But the kids want to build their future,” said the activist, known as Mamlekate, who has played a key role in distributing photos and video from the protests, and in connecting journalists to sources in the country.

“If the kids don’t do it, who’s going to do it?” he told CNN. “This is far from over.”

The digest

Netanyahu dismisses key ally Aryeh Deri after High Court order

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed key ally Aryeh Deri from all ministerial posts on Sunday, complying with a ruling by Israel’s highest court that it was unreasonable to appoint the Shas party leader to positions in government. Netanyahu told Deri he made the move “with a heavy heart, with great sorrow,” according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s office.

Background: The court had said Deri’s appointment “cannot stand” due to his criminal convictions and because he had said in court last year before being sentenced over a tax fraud conviction that he would retire from public life. The ruling was a dramatic move amid an unprecedented confrontation between his government and the judiciary.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s government is planning major judicial reforms, which include a series of changes announced earlier this month that would allow parliament to overturn high court decisions and give politicians more power in appointing judges. More than 100,000 people protested Saturday night in central Tel Aviv, the largest in a series of demonstrations against the planned changes.
Prominent Egyptian businessman and his son released from prison

Safwan Thabet, founder and former CEO of Juhayna Food Industries, and his son Seifeldin Thabet were released from prison in Egypt on Saturday following almost two years in pretrial detention. The businessmen’s release comes almost two weeks after a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called for stronger support for the private sector as one of its key demands.

Background: Safwan was arrested in December 2020, and his son was later summoned and arrested in February 2021. They were both accused of “belonging to and financing terrorist groups,” but were never formally charged. The businessmen’s case gained international traction over the last two years, and in September 2021 Amnesty International said the incident shows “just how far the Egyptian authorities are willing to go to exert control and exposes how terrorism-related accusations are ruthlessly exploited in today’s Egypt”.
Why it matters: The listed company Juhayna is Egypt’s largest producer of dairy and juice products. In 2021, it had a 58% market share in the milk segment. It is unclear why the two men were released, which comes just two weeks after the IMF released details of its $3 billion Extended Fund Facility to Egypt, in which Egypt pledges to “reduce the state footprint” in the private sector.
EU approves new Iran sanctions package, says Iran Guards terrorist designation requires court decision in member state

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said any decision to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization would first require a court decision in a member state.

Background: The European Parliament on Thursday approved a resolution calling on the bloc to designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. And on Monday, the EU approved a new package of sanctions on Iran amid the country’s crackdown on protests at home.
Why it matters: Borrell’s statement comes amid conflicting reports from Iranian politicians about potential retaliatory action should the EU move forward with the terrorist designation. The Vice Chairman of the Internal Affairs and Councils Commission in the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Hassan Asfari, on Monday said that shuttering the Strait of Hormuz to European commercial ships is “on the table,” according to local media. Shortly afterwards, parliament spokesman Nizamuddin Mousavi said that there is no plan on the parliament’s agenda to close down the strait. The strait, which lies off Iran’s southern coast, is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. One third of the world’s seaborne oil passes through it.
Around the region

Conservatives in Jordan’s parliament are up in arms over a locally produced Netflix film that depicts crime and corruption in the country.

“The Alleys,” set in a fictitious neighborhood in Jordan, started streaming in early January and has come under heavy attack by lawmakers, some of whom described it as a decadent portrayal of society and criticized its use of obscene language.

One member of parliament (MP), Suleiman Abu Yahya, went as far as to demand on Monday that the government strip the citizenship of one of the film’s actors.

Last week, another MP, Mohammad Abu Suailik called for the producers to be taken to court for defaming the country and its people.

“This is a great assault on other people’s freedom, their values, religion and beliefs.” he said in parliament. “The filmmaker and its funders should be held accountable.”

Bassel Ghandour, the director, didn’t respond to CNN’s request for comment.

Jordan’s nascent but thriving film production industry has frequently come under fire by conservatives in parliament for its depiction of local society.

Liberal activist Sanad Nowar responded to the controversy by saying on Instagram that Jordan’s reputation is being marred not by the movie but by parliament’s own behavior, posting a video of MPs last year throwing punches at each other.

“This is not the first time parliament attacks such Jordanian movies,” he told CNN. “Every time, they use the same argument, which is that it doesn’t represent (the) Jordanian community.”

“We’ve been seeing so many attacks on anything related to art, music or any creative work that is outside of the box.”

Co-written and directed by Oscar-nominated filmmaker Bassel Ghandour, the film recounts events in a “claustrophobic neighborhood where gossip and violence police people’s behavior,” the film’s synopsis reads.

The film has won multiple awards, including the Audience Award and Special Mention at Sweden’s Malmo Arab Film Festival.

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